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Friday, 5 December 2014

What Does The US Want? A Letter, That’s All

What Does The US Want? A Letter, That’s All


In spite of the pretence on both sides, especially on the US side, relations between Washington and Abuja will get worse before they get better. The announcement by Nigeria this week that it is cancelling US military training for Nigerian troops is hardly a surprise. It’s been coming a long time.


On a recent trip to the US, I met and chatted up a top Nigerian diplomat at the JFK airport. I was curious about the growing tension in relations between Nigeria and the US and knew he would shoot straight from the waist. I wanted to know about the US role in the search for the 200-plus missing Chibok girls and the scandalous $9.7million South African arms deal.

Why are the girls still at large months after the US and a few other countries joined in the search, and after US spy planes had reportedly sighted them in Sambisa Forest? Is it true that Nigeria had to haul about $9.7million cash in a chartered plane (apart from a separate $5million transferred to a dead company) to buy arms in South African black markets because the US was not just unwilling to supply but even actively blocked Nigeria’s attempt to buy from Israel?

Why is Nigeria unable to rally quality and sustained international support in its war on Boko Haram?

The source confirmed the US spy plane story, but added that going public with the information at the time the Nigerian military officials did was a big and costly mistake. There was still a lot to be done. There were operational issues about reporting lines to be sorted out. Motivation level among the troops was low. Training and equipment were big issues.

Abuses were common among the rank and file, and corruption was rife at the top. Discussions about how to rescue the girls were still ongoing and the strategy was not settled. The spy video was just a dot in the plan.

My source explained that expectations were already very high that the involvement of the US would produce an almost immediate result. These expectations, however, under-estimated the deep unease on a wide range of issues on both sides.

The US literally came to Chibok at gunpoint: Nigeria’s growing love affair with China, the refusal to allow the US Africa Command a base in the country, not to mention the corruption and incompetence of the Jonathan government had left Washington confused and frustrated. On its part, top Nigerian military officials did not want US direct involvement in Chibok, if they could avoid it. Long used to keeping its secrets secret and still reeling from its own internal power play, the military simply loathed the prying eyes that was bound to come with US involvement.

Yet, time was running out and global outrage over the kidnap of the girls was mounting. The military, which had come under severe criticism at the time, also wanted to show they were doing something. That was why defence chief Alex Badeh went to town with the news that the girls had been sighted. He may have meant well, but my source insisted that the announcement marked a turning point – for the worse – in US involvement.

Deep-rooted animosity, mistrust and suspicion on both sides, which had been set aside for the sake of the girls, came flooding back. As pressure mounted on the Nigerian government to find the girls and Boko Haram became increasingly audacious, the government again turned to Washington.

My source said the Obama White House expressed its willingness to help supply arms but gave a major condition: the Nigerian government must provide a report of what it is doing to address allegations of extrajudicial killings and other abuses in the war on Boko Haram.

Abuja being Abuja, the matter was simply left unattended.

But why, I asked my source? The US had Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo. The world was appalled all right, but the heavens didn’t fall. Why is the US blocking arms supply simply on allegations of extrajudicial killings while hundreds of innocents are being killed daily?

The source explained that the Obama White House was not out for a stick to beat Jonathan on the head. All it needed was a report that the government was aware of the abuses and was taking steps to investigate and root them out. But Abuja, not used to anything that makes it break sweat, refused to lift a finger.

In any case, US ‘intransigence’ would soon become an excuse for arms tourism that has taken Nigeria through the world’s black markets – from the US to Israel, from Israel to South Africa and from South Africa to Belarus.

Stopping US military training for our troops is not the worst thing that can happen to the country. We are used to cutting our nose to spite our face.

The devil, as we shall soon find out, is in filling the void.



New Shale Secrets, Putin And The Rest Of Us

The faceoff between the West and Russia over Ukraine will affect many bystanders hundreds of thousands of miles away. Just like Ronald Reagan did with the old Soviet Union, President Obama is obviously using economic weapons – especially oil – to bring Vladimir Putin’s Russia to its knees. With Russia set to lose $130-$150billion a year from sanctions and falling oil prices, it is hurting below the belt. Those who say that US shale oil will not be profitable below $80 per barrel need to read the small prints in one of the recent statements by the International Energy Agency, which actually says that only four per cent of US shale oil will not be profitable at that price. Most US producers, the report said, will actually survive at $42 per barrel. On his part, Putin has set up an economic team to devise how Russia will survive at low oil prices for at least ten years. The world, especially oil producers, is in for a long haul. Sadly, we here don’t seem to see that far.

Source: Leadership News

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